read my explanation not only how buy why there can only be one answer how this all happened.
Ok, Let me first state that I present this hypothesis from the prospective that in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, meaning no smoking gun, no video showing Brady or Belichick deflating balls, or an equipment manager or ball boy deflating balls. I believe the Patriots (haters hang with me here) are telling the truth.
What do we know?
1. The NFL says the Patriots & Colt balls where within specifications upon inspection 2:30hr before the game, we can assume that means Patriots balls were at 12.5psi were Brady likes them, we don’t know what Andrew Luck likes his to be at, but it really doesn’t matter.
2. At half time the Patriots balls were tested and not within specification, we don’t know how much, but the Chris Mortenson report says all were 2lbs below, at 10.5psi. Mortensons report is speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt, but let’s just say ok.
3. Also at half time Colts balls were still with in regulation, unlike the Patriots balls. The officials then brought the Patriots balls up to regulation and sent out for the second half of the game.
4. At the conclusion of the game the Patriots balls that were properly inflated at half time, remained within regulations.
5. It was reported that Mike Adams of the Colts who intercepted Brady during the Nov 16 game with at the Colts, said he felt the ball was underinflated: However, Mike Adams made clear at the probowl prep yesterday that this was completely false. He said during that game he didn’t feel anything abnormal with the ball. Also the first time he heard of any issue with the balls was this past Monday after their loss at Gillette.
6. It was also reported that De’qwell Jasckson who intercepted a Brady pass in the second quarter of Sundays AFC championship game felt the ball was underinflated. This too has been proven not to be true. Deqwell Jackson has said he didn’t think there was anything wrong with the ball and had no idea of the patriots deflated balls until the report came out early Monday morning.
So what happened?? Who did it? NO ONE DID ANYTHING, its science baby, science:
Ok, let me lay out what happened.
The patriots footballs most likely were collected by the equipment personnel Friday after practice, the Patriots had a walkthrough on Saturday and may not have used the any footballs. It is important to assume that the prospective game balls most likely where stored in the equipment room or managers office somewhere in the bowels of Gillette Stadium. These areas in Stadiums are notoriously steamy and hot, but that can’t be confirmed so lets just say its probably at 75/80 degrees where they were stored.
Sunday 5 hours before game time Brady and the equipment personnel meet and he picks out his game balls. Now these balls have been out of the weather and stored indoors at temps of 75/80 degrees since Friday afternoon or Saturday afternoon, either way the footballs have now reached equilibrium with the indoor temperature of Gillette Stadium wherever they were stored. It is very important to understand that not just the air, but the balls themselves, the pigskin, the bladder inside the ball and the air are all in equilibrium with the indoor stadium temps. The equipment manager filled the balls to Brady’s liking , 12.5psi ( this is at the bottom of the regulation) . Brady pick out his game balls, the game balls were now set aside and then brought to the Refs 2.5hrs prior to the game at the Referees prep room. Its important to note that the Colts balls were also brought to the Refs at the same time.
The Refs verified the psi of each teams footballs (again we don’t know what the Colts balls were at but we do know they were within regulation). The balls were then marked and kept till shortly before the game. We don’t know how long the refs kept the balls, the regulation simply says they will turn them over to the appropriate team “shortly before the game” lets just say for the purpose of this explanation, it was an hour before. So 1 hour prior to the game the patriot’s balls went outside for the first time since either Friday or Saturday afternoon. They went outside at the bottom of the allowable regulation 12.5psi.
Based on the numerous scientists and their long drawn out mathematical formulas and understanding of the effects of the weather on the Patriots footballs, there is no denying that the Patriots footballs material (pigskin leather, laces, bladder) along with air inside warmed to the ambient temperature of the interior of the stadium that they would begin loosing psi the moment they went outside, and would continue to loose psi until such time they reached equilibrium with the outdoor temps. The deflation (again verified by science) would be accelerated by the driving rain, just like we cool much faster with wet and cold then just being dry and cold. The 16% loss has also been proven to be highly within the realm of possibility based on the mathematical science (I’ve posted several formulas see my page)
Some say” how did Brady not realize there was a difference between 12.5psi and 10.5psi (again presuming the Mortenson report is 100% correct)”, but the reality is at game time the footballs had been outside for an hour or so, not enough to drop the psi to the eventual 10.5. The 1st quarter it was mostlikely at 12.2 or 12.3 or 12.1, and imperceptible to Brady or anyone else for that matter. However the deflation continued throughout the first half of the game. Keep in mind that during this game Brady had a “snap to release” time of around 2seconds. That means when the ball was hiked, it was out of his hands and on the way to a receiver in 2 seconds, with pass rushers, driving rain, cool temps (45-50degrees), wind , noise ect.. it is very likely that Brady didn’t perceive and discernable difference in the ball. Also keep in mind, that with a run play Brady wouldn’t be digging his thumb or fingers into the ball at all, he would simply palm the ball into Lagarrett Blunts stomach, therefore having no bases to evaluated the psi difference.
Even when the psi was down to 10.5 it would have been near the end of the first half , you will note that at the start of the 2nd half the footballs had been re-inflated to 12.5psi or higher, thus ending the perception issue all together.
During the 15min halftime the Patriot footballs came inside after being out side for over 2hrs plus in cold wet conditions. It is important note that the balls are not kept in a sealed bag of 12, but rather spread out around the field in groups of 4. This allows easier access to a team’s balls regardless where on the field the next play is happening.
What is important here is that 15minutes during halftime wasn’t enough time to warm the Patriots footballs to any significant degree, the Patriots Footballs had now reached equilibrium with the outside temps and thus there should be no future significant deflation expected once the refs brought them back up to the 12.5psi or higher, and then sent them back outside. How do we know this ? the proof lies with the Colts footballs.
The Colts footballs didn’t fall out of regulation during the first half, why??? Because nobody deflated them right…lol No!
The reason the Colts footballs would have remained at the correct level of psi is they probably were already at equilibrium with the outdoor temps. Now I certainly don’t know where the Colts stored their footballs since leaving Indianapolis, but it’s not a stretch to assume that the balls along with the other equipment travelled in baggage in the team plane, a notoriously cool part of the plane, often subzero temps during flight. Upon arrival in New England the equipment mostly likely was stored in an equipment truck or trailer and arrived at the stadium shortly before the game . Much of the Colts equipment and material most likely went right to their sideline, the Colts balls having been inflated to their psi where brought “indoors” to the refs and certified. The balls sat inside in the refs room for at least 2.5hrs, thus being indoors for the first time since they left Indianapolis the day prior, as the balls warmed to the ambient temp in the refs room they ever so slightly increase in psi, they have no choice its fucking science. Thus when the balls came back outside they would at the most deflate back to their original psi the Colts set them at before bringing them to the refs.
To recap the reason the Patriots footballs held their psi in the 2nd half, after the refs brought them back to 12.5 or higher. Simple answer is the balls were now cold and at the outside ambient temperature and for the first time were on par with the Colts balls insomuch as being effected by the weather.
So that’s it really, my guess is that never before has there been this much focus on the effects of temp differences in footballs. We know that no matter what, science and math don’t lie. We know that the footballs have no choice but to be effected by the weather, again its science baby. We know that the Colts and Patriots footballs where most likely inflated and stored at completely different starting temperatures prior to the officials certification.
Here are a couple of thoughts.
It is possible that the equipment manager for the Patriots with dozens of years’ experience knew how to pass the refs inspection. He and Brady might have talked about a softer ball would be better in bad weather (most likely like every other team) and it’s possible that the equipment manager pre-heated the patriot balls prior to the inspection, i.e. in a drier or leaving them in a hot room 90 degrees or sauna prior to the inspection. But is this cheating? Or isn’t just smart?
But Brady said he like his balls at 12.5psi obviously on the softer side, then why would the equipment manager (or whoever) heat the balls up knowing they will fall below the desired temp once in the cold and wet ? Well Brady can’t have it both ways, no matter what the equipment manager set the balls at they would lose psi coming from the warm inside to the cold outside, so it comes down to this .
1. Is it better for Brady to start the game with a ball he knows is 12.5psi and slowly loses psi over the course of the game , thus allowing him to naturally adjust to the difference.
2. or should the equipment manager raise the psi to 13 / 13.5 at the start knowing that the ball will slowly deflated to 12.5 /12psi.
I think it pretty obvious that Brady would prefer to start the game with the most comfortable ball condition rather than the 13/13.5psi, as it is always important to get going early, rather than late.
Is this cheating??
I look at it like this, if a high school or college wrestler or a boxer or UFC fighter has to make weight the night before a tournament or fight, if that wrestler or fighter makes weight and then goes and has a big meal, drinks ton of water to hydrate ect.. well the next day he is definitely over his weight limit, but that isn’t cheating correct? He’s allowed to fight?
I think that if there is no evidence of actual tampering of the balls after the refs certified the footballs, then this has been the biggest witch hunt since Salem!
I welcome your questions.